In the latest Reuters/Zogby poll, McCain has taken a 5 point lead.
Obama loses ground among Dems, women, Catholics & even younger voters
UTICA, New York – As Russian tanks rolled into the Republic of Georgia and the presidential candidates met over the weekend in the first joint issues forum of the fall campaign, the latest polling includes drama almost as compelling - Republican John McCain has taken a five-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.
McCain leads Obama by a 46% to 41% margin.
And McCain not only enjoys a five-point edge in a two-way race against Obama, but also in a four-way contest including liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, the poll reveals. In the four-way contest, McCain wins 44% support, Obama 39%, Barr 3% and Nader 2%.
This latest Reuters/Zogby poll is a dramatic reversal from the identical survey taken last month – in the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47% to 40%. In the four-way race last month, Obama held a 10-point lead over McCain.
You will probably hear the punditry bloviating about this poll for the next 24-48 hours and opining on why he needs Hillary more than ever. In fact, this recent poll is probably an outlier. When you look at the internals, the data captured were from likely voters (what's the percentage of Obama supporters who still own a landline phone?) and this demographic is not as reliable as registered voters. The poll was also conducted while Obama was on vacation and during the Russian invasion of Georgia. McCain did everything he could to milk the headlines in his favor.
Admittedly, there is some cause for concern, the negative ads have taken a toll and the polling accurately reflects that the McCain camp has succeeded in driving down Obama's favorability ratings. Incidentally, while Obama is being dragged down, McCain's numbers are still stagnant at 45-46%. Obama needs to fight back more aggressively or face a demoralized base in November. Every McCain attack needs to be challenged quickly while launching his own missiles at the Arizona Senator. The Obama camp has run a disciplined and magnificent campaign thus far and could be playing the rope-a-dope boxing strategy prior to kicking into full gear in September. Due to Campaign finance rules, McCain needs to spend all of his cash on hand before the GOP convention, afterwards he will be restricted to the $84 million provided by the public finance system.
I sure hope that is the case and he is simply waiting to unleash a massive onslaught on McCain. Contrary to popular belief, McCain's leadership credentials should be challenged, however not directly by Obama himself. Obama should stay on message , highlight the economy and other issues. Someone like Gen. Wesley Clark or Joe Biden could be key in rebutting McCain on foreign policy and national security. The Vanel Journal's preference would be Gen. Wesley Clark.
Senator Obama toughen up and fire up your base!
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
McCain Up 5 Points in Zogby Poll
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1 comments:
From Josh Marshall or at TPM
Don't ever demand someone stop attacking you. Doesn't work. Don't do it. Sounds weak. Sounds pathetic. And a lot else.
Look at John McCain attacking my patriotism. It's sad what he's become. He'll do anything to get elected. Attack my patriotism. Change all his positions. Get in bed with the same people he used to say were the worst thing in politics. He'll do anything to get elected ...
Or
Look at John McCain. He knows people are fed up with the politics he and George Bush support. So instead of saying what he's for all he can think of to do is silly stuff like attacking my patriotism.
I'm not a message person so I'm sure a real one could come up with much better. But the point is. Don't demand or beg or please or even ask. It's silly and weak and achieves nothing. McCain's weakness is that he's abandoned everything he always said he believed in, just to be president. Against Bush/Rove attacks? Now they run his campaign? Reform? Now he's for all of President Bush's economic policies. It's the mix of flip-flops and moral failures that made his one time admirer diagnose him with a "severe character defect." A lot of people can see McCain's moral and character problem. But it needs bringing to the surface. Obama should come at it soft and his surrogates hard. It has the deep virtue of being true. Whatever else, STOP BEGGING.
Indeed..
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